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Independence -

In 1991, Ukraine voted to claim independence from the Soviet Union in a referendum. Over 92% of the population voted in favor.

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Belovezh Accords -

A week later, Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus signed the Belovezh Accords, marking the end of the Soviet Union. The Accords left many loose ends, as the Soviet nations shared a great deal of culture, currencies, and weapons.

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Close ties to Russia -

Ukraine claimed its independence from Russia but maintained close ties to the nation, particularly in terms of economic interdependence and cultural influence.

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Treaty on Friendship, Co-operation and Partnership -

In 1997, the nations signed the Treaty on Friendship Co-operation and Partnership, which reiterated territorial integrity.

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The 2004 Ukrainian elections -

The 2004 Ukrainian elections changed the trajectory of the nation. Ukrainian politics shifted toward a pro-European identification in contradiction to then-Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych’s position.

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Public movement -

Huge protests erupted and a popular movement to move the nation toward European integration occurred, leading to Yanukovych fleeing the nation.

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Crimea -

Russia annexed Crimea, a strategic Ukrainian location on the Black Sea, in March 2014. This move was deemed illegal, leading to sanctions and furthering Russia’s distance from the West.

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Separatist movements -

Separatist movements in Donbas, eastern Ukraine, began between Ukrainian forces and the separatists, which were supported through weaponry and intelligence by the Russian government.

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Minsk Agreements -

A ceasefire was reached through the Minsk Agreements, but tensions continued to brew, culminating in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

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Thousands of casualties -

The war has resulted in thousands of casualties and widespread destruction. Russia has experienced diplomatic isolation and sanctions while Ukraine has furthered its relationship with the West, generating geopolitical shifts.

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United Nations -

The United Nations argues that the countries must address the root causes of the conflict, rather than just engaging in peace agreements, to ensure long-lasting peace.

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Trump -

With the reelection of Trump, Ukraine has expressed anxiety about whether the US will continue to support its war efforts.

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Elise Stefanik -

Trump named Elise Stefanik as the UN ambassador. In 2022, Stefanik said she believed Russia was committing genocide in Ukraine, urging NATO to admit Ukraine as a member.

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Unclear stance -

Today, Stefanik’s position is unclear. Her previous pro-Ukraine stance is no longer as absolute. Recently, her office was asked if she still supports Ukraine’s NATO membership, and they refused to comment.

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US public opinion -

Stefanik’s position aligns with US public opinion, which expresses concerns about the role of the American military and aid in a conflict without a clear end.

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Voted against aid -

In April 2024, Stefanik voted against the aid package to Ukraine, in contrast with her previous voting patterns and public positions.

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Ending the war -

During his campaign trail, Trump continuously expressed uncertainty regarding continuous aid to Ukraine, while simultaneously stating he will bring about the end of the war, without sharing his strategy as to how.

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JD Vance -

Trump’s vice president JD Vance has shared similar views, suggesting he supports an end to the war in line with Russian demands.

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"Make a deal." -

Trump recently shared in an interview with Fox News that has called on the Ukrainian president to arrive at a ceasefire or implies it will face cuts: “I would tell Zelensky, no more — you got to make a deal.”

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Peace talks -

With Ukraine losing more control over its eastern territories, it has increased its calls for guaranteed security from its allies and reiterated this point as a prerequisite for any peace talks.

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Public opinion lowering -

Ukrainian troops are struggling to continue a viable war, while Russia continues to gain ground in escalating attacks. Public opinion has dropped in regard to the US continuing to pour funding into this war under these circumstances.

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Ceding territories -

The sway of public opinion is also observable in Ukraine, among its public. Approximately 32% of Ukrainians are willing to give up territories to end the war.

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Marco Rubio -

Marco Rubio, who was named Trump’s Secretary of State, would probably take on a similar stance to Stefanik; likely inhibiting the continuation of military aid.

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Peace talks -

Trump’s administration sees the end of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia as boiling down to peace talks, rather than the furtherance of Ukraine’s militarization.

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Against aid package -

Rubio joined Stefanik as part of a group of Republicans who voted against the US$95 billion aid package to Ukraine, with the party shifting its focus to the US-Mexico border.

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“End the war in 24 hours” -

Russian and Ukrainian representatives are vying for Trump’s support, while he reiterates his intention to “end the war in 24 hours” after he takes office.

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Service people lost -

Ukraine continues to lose service people, finding the challenge to meet its military needs in terms of personnel and equipment nearly impossible. Meanwhile, Russia maintains its position to persevere with the war until a viable settlement is reached.

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Forced ceasefire -

What’s clear is that the Trump administration won’t support Ukraine with unconditional funding. The nations will likely need to negotiate sooner rather than later, or Ukraine will be forced into a ceasefire due to a lack of resources.

Sources: (CNN) (The New York Times) (The Financial Times) (CBS News) (The Wall Street Journal) (Politico) (Slate Magazine)

See also: All the countries invaded by Russia 

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