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Origin -

The Nobel Prizes are named after Alfred Nobel, a Swedish-born scientist who invented dynamite in the 1860s and later created powerful and deadly weapons that would set the stage for World War I.

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A large fund -

Before his death in 1896 at the age of 63, Nobel signed his final will, in which he set aside the majority of his immense estate (worth around US$176 billion today) to a new fund that would award prizes to those individuals who have “conferred the greatest benefit to humankind.”

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A massive number -

Since 1901, the Nobel Prize has been awarded over 625 times to more than 1,000 individuals and organizations. Some recipients have won the prize more than once, which brings the total number to over 975 individuals and more than 25 organizations.

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Statistics -

By looking at the statistics of all the Nobel Prize recipients in the past 120-plus years, there are some truly interesting patterns that emerge. Are these patterns a prediction of who stands the best chance to win? Let’s take a look at them.

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Age -

The best chance that any person has of winning the Nobel Prize would be when they’re 54 years old. To date, over 20 recipients have won at this age, while the average age of all laureates is 58.

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Youngest -

The youngest winner to ever receive the Nobel Prize was Malala Yousafzai, who received the Nobel Peace Prize in 2014 at the age of 17. She won the prize alongside another laureate for her efforts in supporting children and their right to education.

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Oldest -

The oldest laureate was John B. Goodenough, awarded the Nobel Prize in Chemistry at the age of 97. The prize was awarded to him and two others for their development of lithium-ion batteries.

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Male supremacy -

Statistically, potential nominees for a Nobel Prize would have a better chance if they identify as a man. Of the over 975 individual laureates who have won since 1901, only just over 60 have been women. The first woman to win was Marie Curie, who won the Nobel Prize in Physics in 1903 and again in Chemistry in 1911.

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A woman’s world -

If a potential laureate identifies as a woman, their best chance at winning an award would be the Nobel Peace Prize. Of the over 60 women to have won, 19 of them were awarded the Peace Prize.

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Improvement -

If a nominee is a female scientist, their chances at receiving a prize have improved in recent years. In the entire 20th century, only 11 Nobel Prizes in Science (for chemistry, physics, and physiology or medicine) were awarded to women. However, since 2000 women have won another 15 prizes.

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Waiting time -

Laureates should also expect to wait for their award. On average, anyone who wants to win a prize should start their Nobel-worthy work in their forties, as it should take another two decades for the award to be given.

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Lengthening -

Interestingly, the number of years between the work and the prize is actually lengthening over time. Before 1960, laureates waited an average of 14 years before receiving a prize, while those honored in the 2010s waited an average of 29 years.

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After death -

There is a time limit, though! Nobel Prizes are not awarded posthumously, with one key exception: if a laureate is announced but passes away between the time of the announcement and the award ceremony, they can still receive the prize.

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Sharing is caring -

Any potential laureate should also be prepared to share the prize. Of the more than 625 times the Nobel Prize has been awarded, it has been shared over 365 times between two or three winners. That’s close to 59% of all the prizes since 1901!

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Science is the way -

Laureates in the category of physiology or medicine have a higher chance of winning, since they share the Nobel Prize most often. Thus far, the prize has been awarded to more than one laureate a total of 75 times, which is almost 66% of all the prizes in the category.

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A solo endeavor -

In comparison, the Nobel Prize in Literature is the award that is shared least often. Of the over 115 times the prize was awarded, it was only shared on four occasions.

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Location, location, location -

Any would-be awardee should also consider their location if they wish to win a Nobel Prize. People who live and were born in North America have a higher chance of winning.

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Americans -

More than half of all Nobel Prizes have been awarded to people in North America. Many of them weren’t born on the continent, but did move there before winning the prize.

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Europeans -

Potential laureates would also have a high chance of winning if they were born and still live in Europe, or they moved there. However, the chances are slightly less than if they lived in North America.

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Migration -

Very few laureates hail from low- or lower-middle-income countries, and most of them had already emigrated to North America or Europe by the time they were awarded the Nobel.

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Connections -

Aside from the prowess and ideal location needed to win a Nobel, potential laureates would also have a higher chance of winning if they were connected to or mentored by someone who has already won the prize or will win it in the future.

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A series of winners -

John W. Strutt (a scientist who won the physics prize in 1904) has over 225 academic descendants with Nobels, which include his own students, their students, and so on.

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The start -

Among his trainees, Strutt had only one who would later win the Nobel Prize in 1906. That trainee was Joseph Thomson, who won the prize for his experiments on how gases are able to conduct electricity.

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The spread of knowledge -

Thomson, in turn, trained nine physicists who would win the Nobel Prize (one of whom was actually his son, George Paget Thomson), as well as two chemists. They went on to train other scientists who either won Nobels or produced prizewinners in their own right.

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Nomination -

A possible explanation for this huge 'family tree' is that talent begets talent. Another possibility is that previous winners nominate their scientific descendants. In the science categories, nominations are exclusively by invitation only, so laureates with connections have a higher chance of winning.

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Committees -

Each of the five Nobel Prize categories have their own standing committee, and the science committees send out nomination requests to roughly 3,000 people, all of whom are leading academics and/or former Nobel recipients.

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Shortlist -

From the hundreds of nominations sent back, each Nobel Committee generates a shortlist, which is sent off to the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences. The Academy then votes on who the winners of the Nobel Prizes in physics, chemistry, and physiology or medicine would be.

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Literary process -

For the other two prize categories, literature and peace, the nomination process is slightly different. For literature, the committee sends out their own invitations, but do consider other qualified persons, including professors of literature and presidents of national literary societies.

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For the sake of peace -

For the peace prize, no nomination invitations are sent, and only “qualified” individuals can submit names for consideration. These individuals include members of The Hague, government ministers, or former Nobel Peace Prize winners.

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Sworn to secrecy -

The deliberation process that is undertaken in choosing Nobel winners is incredibly private (to the point of being secretive). In fact, the full lists of nominees and their nominators aren’t released to the public until 50 years later.

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Grand prize -

Any potential laureate not only receives critical acclaim that comes with the prize, but they can also revel in the cash reward given to them. As of 2023, winners receive not only a gold medal and diploma, but also roughly US$1 million each.

Sources: (Nature) (HowStuffWorks) (Nobel Prize) (Britannica)

See also: The Nobel Prize's most controversial moments

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