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The study -

A recent study attributed a projected net increase of 80,000 temperature-related deaths per year to the hottest scenario possible. 

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Optimistic scenario -

Even in an optimistic scenario, an extra 8,000 people would also die as a result of mild “suboptimal temperatures,” achieved by reducing pollution that increases the planet’s temperature.

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Contrary to popular belief -

It has been argued that an increase in temperature may be a good thing for society because fewer people will die from cold weather, but this study challenges that argument.

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Contrary to popular belief -

According to the study, heat-related deaths will outnumber those saved by milder winters.

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Test -

“We wanted to test this. And we show clearly that we will see a net increase in temperature-related deaths under climate change,” said lead author of the sturdy Pierre Masselot, a statistician at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.

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Over 800 cities were analyzed -

The study looked at the link between temperature and mortality rates for different age groups. Data was analyzed for 854 European cities.

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Three scenarios -

In the end, three climate scenarios were mapped. These look at changes in population and temperatures over the century, and ranged from low to high emissions.

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Three scenarios -

In all three scenarios, the study found that more people will die of uncomfortably hot temperatures than they do today.

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Hotspots -

The region forecast to be hit the hardest by an increase in temperatures and deaths is southern Europe, especially around the Mediterranean.

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Hotspots -

Next comes central Europe. The area comprises Austria, Switzerland, Poland, and parts of southern Germany.

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Hotspots -

The part of Europe least affected by soaring temperatures will be northern Europe.

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Discrepancy -

“In Norway, for instance, we might see a very slight benefit, [But this] is completely overshadowed by this massive increase we see in southern countries,” said Masselot.

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Extreme cold can be dangerous -

Extreme temperatures can also affect the body and lead to death. In cold scenarios, hypothermia can set in. Cold spells can raise blood pressure and create a number of lung and heart problems.

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Extreme heat can be dangerous -

And in the case of extreme heat, heatstroke is also a dangerous condition. The old and sick are particularly vulnerable during heatwaves.

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Hot weather will kill more people -

“Put bluntly, the increase in hot weather will kill more people than the decrease in cold weather will save,” said Tim Osborn, a climate scientist at the University of East Anglia.

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The importance of this study -

Osborn highlighted the importance of this study. “While this new study isn’t the final say on the matter … it does break new ground by scrutinizing people’s vulnerability to extreme temperatures by age and by city to a much better level of detail than previous work,” he said.

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Exceptions -

The study considered European cities exclusively. This means that rural areas were not considered. These regions are less exposed to the urban heat island effect.

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Forecast -

In total, the high heating scenario is expected to lead to an extra 2.3 million people dying in Europe between 2015 and 2099.

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The death toll was just one of the dangers of rising temperatures -

According to climate and health expert Madeleine Thomson, “extreme heat kills but it also causes a wide range of serious health problems.”

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The death toll was just one of the dangers of rising temperatures -

Extreme heat “has been linked to an increased risk of cardiovascular disease, miscarriages, and poor mental health,” she added.

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Argument -

Erich Fischer, a climate scientist at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich (ETHZ) points out that “there are also legitimate arguments that this net effect is only of limited relevance.”

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Comparison -

“If a new drug with serious side-effects that lead to countless deaths were approved, I would hardly argue that the drug saves about as many lives, or that the net effect could even be slightly positive in the short term despite the many deaths.”

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Adaptation -

“The good news is that we can adapt,” said Víctor Resco de Dios, an environmental engineer at the University of Lleida.

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Adaptation -

Adaptation to these soaring temperatures is key to survival. In the hottest possible scenario, high levels of adaptation can make a difference in survival rates.

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Adaptation -

“Adaptation starts with relatively simple solutions – although they are not free – such as installing air conditioning or creating spaces that serve as climate shelters,” explains Víctor Resco de Dios.

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Complex solutions -

In addition to the aforementioned solutions, other more complex measures can make a difference, namely “increasing green areas in cities to mitigate the urban heat island – and adapting health systems,” he added. 

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It’s not all doom and gloom -

In the best scenarios, where carbon pollution is cut down, a 50% drop in temperature exposure was enough to reduce the number of net deaths.

Sources: (The Guardian) (Nature)

See also: Scientists confirm 2024 breached 1.5°C global warming limit

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